The sharp rise was also due to a statistical illusion -- low industrial numbers in November 2015, and sharp reversal of a 12-month declining trend in capital goods.
'Like every Budget, this time, too, there is chatter around tinkering with the long-term capital gains tax.' 'Investors may not want to jump into the markets until there is clarity on this front.'
At a time when investors are preferring higher-risk investment products like thematic and small-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes, some fund houses are exploring the possibility of going further down the market-capitalisation (m-cap) ladder to unearth newer investment opportunities. HDFC MF had filed papers with the capital markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - earlier this year for an active micro-cap scheme. Some more fund houses are keen on launching such schemes, say industry observers.
A sharp slowdown in mining sector lowered industrial growth to 7.4 per cent during August 2005 as against 8.6 per cent in the same month last fiscal.
The output of eight core sectors rose 4.4 per cent in September on account of healthy performance by segments like natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data showed on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had grown by 0.6 per cent in September 2020, as per the data released by the commerce and industry ministry.
Domestic stock markets would be driven by inflation numbers, global trends, and the last batch of Q4 earnings this week, analysts said. Markets will also react to industrial production data and consumer inflation numbers that were released after market hours on Friday. "Participants will react to macroeconomic data viz. IIP and CPI first, which were released post-market hours on Friday.
The Institute of Economic Growth also expected banks prime lending rates to decline to below 11 per cent in next few months which would further spur industry growth.
With the first quarter earnings season coming to an end, the domestic equity markets would be driven by global trends and trading activity of foreign investors this week, analysts said. The movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee against the dollar would also drive trends in the market. "Macroeconomic indicators, trends in global stock markets and FII activities will be pivotal in shaping market trends in the coming days," Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
The previous low at 1.8 per cent was recorded in October 2017.
Industrial production grew 11.9 per cent in August mainly due to a low-base effect and good performance by manufacturing, mining and power sectors that surpassed the pre-COVID level. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew 9.7 per cent in August, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The mining sector output rose 23.6 per cent in August, while power generation increased 16 per cent.
Industrial growth during November 2005 slumped to 6.9 per cent from 7.7 per cent in the year-ago period
Manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 77 per cent of the index, showed a decline of 0.4 per cent in June as compared to a growth of 7.5 per cent in the same month last year.
Wholesale inflation rate declined marginally to 0.2 per cent in February compared to 0.27 per cent in the preceding month despite a slight uptick in the food basket. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent. The inflation in February 2023 was 3.85 per cent.
The production growth of eight infrastructure sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity -- was 19.3 per cent in May 2022, the data showed. In June, the output of coal, refinery products, fertiliser, cement and electricity rose by 31.1 per cent, 15.1 per cent, 8.2 per cent, 19.4 per cent, and 15.5 per cent, respectively.
The output of eight core sectors grew by 11.6 per cent in August, mainly due to an uptick in the production of cement, coal, and natural gas, official data showed on Thursday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 6.9 per cent in August 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown imposed to control the spread of COVID-19. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
Capital goods output registered a steep decline of 16.5 per cent in June
The wholesale inflation rose to a 13-month high of 1.26 per cent in April fuelled by rising prices of food articles, especially vegetables, amid expectations of RBI holding interest rates in the policy review next month. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been rising for two months in a row.
Could the MPCE survey results be used as a basis of reconstructing the Consumer Price Index with new weights, asks Madan Sabnavis.
Ask rediffGURU and PF expert Nitin Narkhede your mutual fund and personal finance-related questions.
Shares of Le Travenues, which operates online travel booking platform ixigo, soared 78 per cent on their market debut (June 18) and surged 80.4 per cent in the three days over their issue price. Ixigo has joined competitors EaseMyTrip and Yatra on the bourses. Analysts believe the blockbuster response to ixigo may lead to greater scrutiny of the financial performance of other online travel aggregators (OTAs) like Easy Trip Planners, and Yatra Online.
The ongoing second quarter earnings, movement of oil benchmark Brent crude and the uncertainty in the Middle East would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Furthermore, the activities of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also influence trading in the markets. "A slew of earnings reports from heavyweights expected this week will significantly impact market direction.
Analyst are cautious about the performance of IT services sector from January to March quarter (Q4) of FY24 and the first half (H1) of FY25. While the Bloomberg consensus on revenue implies the market is expecting 2-3 per cent growth on a quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) basis for the IT majors through FY25, the H1FY25 is likely to see even flatter returns, and Q4FY24 is likely to be poor. There is likely to be some recovery in the second half (H2FY25) but even so, there's a chance that the market will be overall disappointed.
Its 11MFY24 production is around 40.2 mt. In FY25, it could hit 50 mt and it may reach 55 mt by FY26. The PSU has capex plans for multiple projects, which should improve the product mix and augment capacity to 100 mt for FY30.
Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production had contracted 2 per cent in June last year, as per the data released by the Central Statistical Organisation.
The wholesale price index-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the seventh straight month in October at (-) 0.52 per cent, on easing prices of food items. The WPI-based inflation rate has been in the negative zone since April and was at (-) 0.26 per cent in September, 2023. In October last year, WPI was at 8.67 per cent.
The stock of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) has been touching successive all-time highs on the bourses and, over the past year, gained 81 per cent. While the S&P BSE Auto Index has not performed poorly, registering gains of 73 per cent, it still trails the company by 800 basis points (bps) during this period. There are multiple reasons why investors are beating a path to M&M's counter.
November IIP data show a fall of over 20%, led by automobiles, gems & jewellery and home appliances; turnaround seen as unlikely.
The government has held back the release of complete data of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April, as was done for the same month last year due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Last year in June, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had held back the release of complete IIP data due to the effect of the nationwide lockdown on factory output. This year too industrial production was hit due to lockdown restrictions imposed by states to curb the second wave of the pandemic.
'The Budget needs to focus more on social welfare schemes.'
The festive season will mean business for the steel industry as it is the time when automotive and consumer appliance companies bump up demand to prepare for higher sales, experts have said. Ranjan Dhar, chief marketing officer at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India (AM/NS India), said that bookings by auto and consumer appliance industries are 20 per cent higher ahead of the festive season compared to last year. "While this could be for a couple of months, it could normalise later at approximately 10 per cent," he said.
Wholesale price-based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fifth straight month in August at (-)0.52 per cent, but prices of food articles and fuel showed an uptick. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)1.36 per cent in July. In August last year it was 12.48 per cent. Inflation in food articles remained in double digit at 10.60 per cent in August, lower than 14.25 per cent in July.
The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rose in December at 0.73 per cent mainly due to a sharp rise in food prices. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.26 per cent.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
Micro-cap stocks are in the line of fire as market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is tightening its noose around investment in small-cap stocks. Given this, analysts suggest investors exit the segment, at least, for the time being. Independent market analyst, Ambareesh Baliga, for instance, said that regulators have gotten worried on the valuation front, though belated, which could prove to be the last straw on the camel's back.
India's industrial production growth remained subdued for the second straight month and expanded by 3.2 per cent in October, mainly due to the waning low base effect while mining, power and manufacturing sectors performed well. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew two per cent in October, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday. The mining sector output rose 11.4 per cent in October, while power generation increased 3.1 per cent.
Retail inflation remained above the RBI's comfort level for the second consecutive month despite slipping slightly to 6.26 per cent in June while the factory output recorded a growth of 29.3 per cent in May, mainly on account of the base effect, the government data showed. The marginal slippage in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was noticed despite little firmness witnessed in the food inflation which inched up to 5.15 per cent in June from 5.01 per cent a month ago. Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 6.3 per cent in May 2021 and 6.23 per cent in June 2020.
Most market analysts are expecting the momentum to shift towards 'quality' and 'growth' stocks in 2024 after the outperformance of 'value' stocks over the past three years. 'Value' stocks are generally well-established companies with steady profits that are trading at a discount to what they are intrinsically worth. Companies in sectors such as commodities, industrials, commercial vehicles and public sector units (PSUs) fall in this bracket.
Barring crude oil and cement, all other sectors recorded positive growth in November. In October, these core sectors' output had grown by 8.4 per cent. In February this year, the growth rate contracted to 3.3 per cent.
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