The previous low at 1.8 per cent was recorded in October 2017.
Manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 77 per cent of the index, showed a decline of 0.4 per cent in June as compared to a growth of 7.5 per cent in the same month last year.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
Wouldn't it be better to reach 45 with a backup engine of passive income that helps you glide through these years instead of grinding, asks Ramalingam Kalirajan
Wholesale price inflation rose to a 4-month high of 2.36 per cent in October as prices of food items, especially vegetables, and manufactured goods turned dearer, as per the government data released on Thursday. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation was 1.84 per cent in September 2024. It was (-) 0.26 per cent in October, last year.
Capital goods output registered a steep decline of 16.5 per cent in June
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production had contracted 2 per cent in June last year, as per the data released by the Central Statistical Organisation.
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
The growth rate in the production of eight key sectors slowed down to a 20-month low of 0.1 per cent in October on account of contraction in the output of crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, and cement, according to the official data released on Wednesday. In October last year, these sectors expanded by 8.7 per cent. In September this year, the core sectors' output growth stood at 7.8 per cent.
Geopolitical events, macroeconomic data and quarterly earnings of corporates would guide the stock market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Stock markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Ram Navami. "This week promises to be crucial for the market as fresh worries about a potential conflict between Iran and Israel emerge.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
November IIP data show a fall of over 20%, led by automobiles, gems & jewellery and home appliances; turnaround seen as unlikely.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
In a double delight, retail inflation eased to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent - staying below the upper tolerance limit for two months in a row, while factory output rose sharply to 7.2 per cent on the back of healthy growth in manufacturing. The retail inflation numbers based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide some room for the Reserve Bank to further moderate the quantum of hike in key interest rate or even press a pause button. The RBI has been on a rate hiking spree since May 2022 in its bid to tame inflation, having raised the repo rate by a cumulative 225 basis points (bps).
From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Nestle India, Asian Paints, ITC, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel and PowerGrid were among the gainers.
Stock markets would take cues from the upcoming macroeconomic data announcements and global trends besides keeping a watch on the trading activity of foreign investors, analysts said. The last batch of the ongoing earnings calendar would trigger stock-specific action, traders said. "This week, we have to deal with macroeconomic data on both the domestic and global front.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
Growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed down to 8.2 per cent in June 2023 compared to the year-ago month due to a decline in the production of crude oil, according to the official data released on Monday.
The wholesale price inflation rose to 1.84 per cent in September as food items, especially vegetables, turned costlier, as per the government data released on Monday. The wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation was 1.31 per cent in August. It was (-)0.07 per cent in September last year.
The output of eight core sectors rose 4.4 per cent in September on account of healthy performance by segments like natural gas, refinery products and cement, official data showed on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had grown by 0.6 per cent in September 2020, as per the data released by the commerce and industry ministry.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
Industrial production grew 11.9 per cent in August mainly due to a low-base effect and good performance by manufacturing, mining and power sectors that surpassed the pre-COVID level. The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), grew 9.7 per cent in August, according to the data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. The mining sector output rose 23.6 per cent in August, while power generation increased 16 per cent.
Benchmark BSE Sensex gained 130 points on Friday after gains in index majors Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Tata Steel ahead of the release of inflation and factory output data. Recovering from its early losses, the 30-share BSE index ended 130.18 points or 0.22 per cent higher at 59,462.78 in a range-bound trade. The broader NSE Nifty advanced 39.15 points or 0.22 per cent to close at 17,698.15.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 3-month low of 2.04 per cent in July on decline in prices of food items especially vegetables, government data released on Wednesday showed. The decline in wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation in July came after it rose for four months in a row till June, when it was 3.36 per cent. It was (-) 1.23 per cent in July last year. In April wholesale inflation stood at 1.19 per cent.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded by 7.9 per cent in September -- the highest in three months -- on account of better show by coal, fertiliser, cement and electricity segments, according to official data released on Monday. In September last year, the growth rate stood at 5.4 per cent. It was 4.1 per cent in August. The previous high was in June when the output expanded by 13.1 per cent.
'Though one cannot paint the entire microcap basket with the same brush, investors need to be careful now as to what they're buying.'
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
The output of eight core sectors grew by 11.6 per cent in August, mainly due to an uptick in the production of cement, coal, and natural gas, official data showed on Thursday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 6.9 per cent in August 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown imposed to control the spread of COVID-19. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
Against the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) projection of 7.1 per cent, India's first quarter (Q1) 2024-25 (FY25) gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.7 per cent. This is in line with market expectations and significantly lower than the 7.8 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2023-24 (FY24) and 8.2 per cent in Q1FY24. The quarter witnessed decreased government consumption and investment spending due to the parliamentary election.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined for the second straight session on Friday following selling in banking, financial and select IT shares amid a weak trend in global markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 125.65 points or 0.19 per cent to close at 66,282.74 as 16 of its constituents fell and 14 advanced. The index opened lower and fell further by around 513 points to the day's low of 65,895.41 in morning deals.
Notwithstanding the fact that the country's pharmaceutical (pharma) pricing regulator has allowed a 12 per cent price increase for medicines listed under the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM) in 2023, analysts and industry insiders predict that the overall domestic pharma industry will only witness a price hike of 5-6 per cent. This is attributed to higher competitive intensity in the market. Krishnakumar V, executive director and chief operating officer (CEO) of Eris Lifesciences, a domestic-focused pharma company, noted that the NLEM segment experienced growth suppression of around 150 basis points due to price reductions during the January to July period this year.
What came to the rescue of the IIP numbers in February were mining and electricity.
'There's a misconception that all Rs 1 lakh crore will be spent immediately, leading to higher consumption of FMCG goods, travel, and vehicle purchases.' 'While some of this money will go toward consumption, not all of it will.' 'The impact depends on where people deploy their savings.'
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
Index of industrial production data had also shown that the sector grew at 3.1 per cent after contracting in the previous quarters.
The government has held back the release of complete data of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for April, as was done for the same month last year due to the COVID-19 lockdown. Last year in June, the National Statistical Office (NSO) had held back the release of complete IIP data due to the effect of the nationwide lockdown on factory output. This year too industrial production was hit due to lockdown restrictions imposed by states to curb the second wave of the pandemic.
The current up move, according to analysts, closely resembles the rally post the global financial crisis in 2008-09, not just in quantum and speed, but also the way small-and mid-cap indices outperformed large-cap peers.
